The
machinery.
If
you could isolate one important similarity about all mechanical and
electronic gadgets it would be that they are built to work. In fact if
they don't work their utility is reduced to zero value. The lawn mower
that never starts is referred to as a "hunk of junk" We are pointing
out (with some irritation) that the object that is supposed to have a
certain utility is devoid of that utility. It's a worthless pile of
metal now in fact it's a liability taking up space in our garage. Any
mechanical or electronic gadget or contraption that has no utility (it
doesn't work) therefore loses its identity as a gadget.
Another
word for gadget is tool or the more umbrella term a technology. A
technology has usage full stop. No usage then its not a technology, its
nothing. To go to the heart of this paradigm shift we realize that the
metal screws and connecting parts aren't really necessary for a tool to
have usage. Anything can be a tool, a technology as long as it has
utility. If it can be employed to produce a result, it's a technology.
The
net result of Opportunity Investment is a compounded profit.
There are several tools we use when we exploit Opportunity
Investment to achieve a result. Our goal is not a single profit. One
transaction, a fortune, does not make.
We
have an over all plan for the next month the next year the next 5 years.
Compounding.
The
first technology any Opportunity Investment entrepreneur will visit is
compounding. However some don't get passed it. It's a dangerous tool
and you can get hurt playing with compounding.
Since
the invention and mass production of the humble calculator more people
have been hurt and hung up by compounding then at any time in history.
(Obviously when we express "hurt" we mean set- back in our goals and
aspirations)
The
nature of compounding is greed. Numbers by themselves aren't greedy its
what the human brings to this tool that can be detrimental.
Nevertheless
compounding is a fundamental technology every single Opportunity
Investor utilizes. Its used not only over long term projections
compounding is used to micro manage projects on a day to day basis.
The
first place one typically starts when using the compounding tool is at
the ultra conservative end. We calculate how much money we will have at
retirement if we deposit $40 per week in the bank, compounded at 7%
annually over thirty years. You can work it out for your self if you
are inclined by simply multiplying 40x52x1.05 and do the
calculation 30 times on the last result.
However
upon completing these calculations immediately we realize we may be too
old to enjoy the money if we had to wait that long. We also
note with some trepidation that over 30 years, inflation would travel
at about 3-4% with us, so the purchasing power of that fund would not
be too impressive. Take into account tax on interest and bank fees and
the result, although initially exciting, is now not so good.
Clearly
working for 30 years and saving is not the answer. But we persist, ok
so lets double our savings plan how does $80 per week look? We feed the
numbers into the equation and we aren't surprised, heck it's the nature
of compounding, our result is double. Not good enough, so we keep
playing with the compounding tool.
This
is where it gets dangerous.
Casually
amusing ourselves with our calculator, we suddenly get an idea. What if
we could find a way in the real world to get a higher interest rate?
You
get a twinkle in your eye as you hit the CE button excitedly three
times to erase the previous calculations. You start with double the
interest rate....14% You feel fairly confident you might be able to
find a bank or co-op or some place that might have this amount of
compounding on offer so you start again. $40 times 52 etc.
A
tiny bit of drool starts to appear at the corners of your mouth as you
get to year 25, wow, its getting pretty good, you hit
year thirty and try 31 and year 32, wow, wow.
Of course what
you do next is obvious, you double the interest rate again. 30% then
40%
You don't dare
see it as anything but folly but you try the figures 100%, and 500%
You GET compounding now.
You
have been toying with the calculator for a few hours now and
tried every conceivable combination, you get it.
The
ultimate Million dollar example.
You
start with $100 dollars and ask yourself how many times you would need
to double that initial $100 for it to grow into 1 million dollars. The
answer is just over 13 times.
How long would it
take to double the hundred? 1 month, so according to those
stats, you could join the million dollar club in just over a
year starting with 1 hundred dollars. Its possible. The planning would
be huge. Nothing would be left to chance. But that doesn't happen. You
are numbers focused and not plan focused. Indeed, commonly no
particular strategy comes to mind.
What happens next
is that you get hung up on the horn of the dilemma.
Desperate to initiate your
compounding "wish" you choose the first investment vehicle
that comes along that is remotely credible. The problem is you are
blinded by the numbers and bubbling with optimism.
Many
people get stuck on these numbers that the calculator spits out. They
become fixated when they apply the numbers to their lives. They begin
to "own" the numbers they begin to spend the profits before they
actually earned them. In short, they lose their way.
.
The
Correct use for compounding.
Compounding
is an orientation tool. If used in this way compounding keeps you on
track, in fact, if greed is resisted compounding will help you find the
path best for you. The interesting news is that compounding at rates of
100%, 300% and 500% are possible even easy when you realize
how. We talk about velocity of money, and ROI
and ROE
in upcoming titles.
Leverage,
the sword of a Titan.
You
may have heard of leverage being referred to as a double edged sword.
If there was ever a good example of a technology or a tool it would be
the sword. It's the ultimate tool for "getting your way".(just behind
the pistol anyway)
Leverage
is simply a term that refers to using OPM
or "other
peoples
money".
There are many types of leverage however the context most referred to
is the use of money you don't own in exchange for a hiring fee usually
paid in the form of an interest rate.
The
caution many attach to leverage is unfounded. The expression "leverage
is a double edged sword"
is
really misleading. It represents a mysterious warning at best. What is
meant by the expression is that as much as leverage has a capacity to
assist you- that same capacity can cut into your progress if
your result is a loss instead of a profit.
How
it works.
A brief
paragraph on how the sword of leverage fights for your good-.
A hundred dollars
to invest will buy one widget worth $100. A typical Opportunity
Investment deal will result in a profit of 30% or $30
Your return is
30% not bad if it only took a month to transact. (That's an annualized
compounding rate of 360% 12x30%)
If you "leverage"
that $100 by using it as a deposit for a loan. With a typical LVR of
80% Your maximum loan amount in this case would be $400 (+your
20% your $100) totaling $500
You may now
purchase a higher quantity or quality widget for $500
On closing the
deal you still make a 30% return. However now your profit is
not $30 as in the example above 1.30% x $500=$650 so your profit is
$150 so your return-on equity is not 30% anymore, even though you still
spent the same $100 bill you started with your return is now 150%
because you earned $150 and your investment was only $100 (the initial
deposit on the loan)
Can
you see how this can be exciting when you go back to your calculator?
The compounding ramifications are staggering (150% annualized is
1800%). Of course there were loan costs and holding costs and taxes.
The
reason leverage is considered a "double edged sword" is because in our
example above if an Opportunity Investment deal went south and you
bought $500 worth of value, a move of 10% against you would result in a
$50 loss ( and that would translate
into a 50% loss of your seed capital- think
bigger numbers and you can see their concern)
However
a 10% move against you with just your $100 spent on the investment
object (without leverage) is the same 10% or $10. So
the "curse" is that your gains are leveraged but so are your
losses.
The
problem we have with the caution is that its justified only in
certain circumstances. For example a large company with a
large operating leverage may find themselves in hot water if a
relatively small error is compounded by leverage due to an unexpected
drop in sales. This is a sales projection error and not related to
singular well researched transactions. Also the caution ignores risk
management strategies.
Ultimately
we view it this way. We Invest to profit. Our discriminatory
skills are a totally seperate issue to the question of leverage. If we
dont use leverage and suffer 3 losses in a row then we are
behind by the exact proportion that we would be if we did utilize
leverage. Why? Because our gains that offset those losses were
leveraged too. Or they weren't leveraged too. Either way the
net result would be identical in proportion to either decision (to
leverage or not) The difference is the net result
would just transpire more rapidly which is why we use leverage in the
first place.
To
illustrate with an example. If you made 24 transactions in 12 months
and 3 were losses. You would be a long way ahead with leverage. But if
you did those same deals but you had 21 losses then leverage or not you
would be behind.
We
will talk more about this in the future, for now lets move
on to the third and final piece of equipment-stacking cash.
Pyramiding
profits.
Money
is flat for a reason. When we were young we collected pocket change. It
rattled around in the tin money box with delightful clanking noises.
The money box felt heavy and the potential for ice creams and lollies
was astounding. In this little tin box jingled countless possible trips
to the toy store and corner shop. One day the can opener emancipated
the coinage and the coinage was gone. What replaced it was match box
cars and lolly bags. The decimated money box sat quietly on the shelf
broken, opened and abandoned.
We
learn very early that we don't want the coin we want the items the coin
represents. We want true value. A bit of round steel
with some writing on it is not the object of our desires. A paper note
cant be eaten or lived in or slept on. A paper note is made to be
stacked. They are so thin they can be stacked to bewildering numbers
without taking up much space at all.
Delayed
Gratification.
Without
the capacity to delay gratification as an individual, you face
returning to square one continually. Its practically impossible for a
spend thrift to advance to a point where the working capital is finally
plentiful enough to supply a living on top of profits. Its
similar to trying to light a camp fire without matches. The kindling
has to be so fine and so dry the conditions need to be just right and
the nature of the endeavor is so very precarious until you see smoke,
then a flame begins to lick, but if you let your guard down at that
point, 9 times out of 10 you will be back at square one, and the fire
will fail. Its not until a branch of decent thickness is alight that we
can ad more "pressure" to the camp fire and be confident that the
flames wont go out and then finally the larger logs are piled on for
longevity.
This
analogy serves to illustrate the same precarious circumstances you are
in before the compounding has had a chance to work in conjunction with
leverage. Without the commitment to delay gratification for a definite
specific period of time the slow tedious work in the beginning will all
be for naught.
Stacking
your cash or pyramiding your profits is another form of focus to task.
The splurges you may casually be used to will not be
available until you are out of the woods. That's why we advocate strict
segregation methods for your funds. Dipping in can be a big mistake and
cost you years in terms of set backs. Bottom line for compounding and
leverage to be effective ALL the profits must be re-invested
into your next deal.
The
three cog mechanism of Opportunity Investment. The
three tools we present above are inter linking. They work, each relying
upon the other to form momentum. If you are fortunate enough to be in
the Million dollar club then passive income is easy. There is
an array of choices out there in the 6-10% range meaning quite a
comfortable income. For those that aren't, these three cogs align
propel and steer toward that milestone goal.
Utilizing
Opportunity Investment for
financial progress is simpler with the right tools. When we want to
build a deck on the back of our house the tools make the job easy and
accurate. So it is with these tools.
Compounding is
your compass its an
orienteering tool. Without it like trying to find a place without a
map, you will simply lose your way.
Leverage is
the motorized time
reclaiming device. It crams a year of compounding into a week.
It is the drive in our momentum machine.
Pyramiding profits is the steering. Each
deal takes you closer to the goal. Stop pyramiding profits and you veer
off course away from where your compass tells you to go.
These
three tools manufacture a singular result...progress to the next level.